Oscar Predictions
Ah, my secret shame: awards-gazing. I follow the Oscar blogs fanatically, and I look forward to the announcement of the nominees and the awards themselves perhaps a bit too much. Inevitably, I am disappointed. This year is a bit less disappointing than usual - those 10 Best Picture nominees yielded an interesting group, and I’m solidly behind two of the locks for acting awards (Mo’Nique and Christoph Waltz). There were a few duds in the nominees, and there could be in the awards themselves - but I’ll talk about that only if it happens.
Best Picture: Avatar; The Blind Side; District 9; An Education; The Hurt Locker; Inglourious Basterds; Precious; A Serious Man; Up; Up in the Air
I have seen all 10, and I like 8 or 9, love 3 to 6 of them (the three I definitely love are A Serious Man, Inglourious Basterds, and The Hurt Locker. I might love Up, Precious, and District 9, but would probably have to see them again to be sure).
The upside to this batch is that we got an interesting mix, and that these are all movies that at least some people genuinely loved - there’s no coasters, although the quality of some nominees is debatable.
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
Spoiler: Avatar
My favorite: Don’t make me choose between Basterds and A Serious Man. OK, it’s Basterds for now.
More after the jump.
Best Director: James Cameron, Avatar; Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds; Lee Daniels, Precious; Jason Reitman, Up In the Air
Although I would kind of love to see Tarantino or Daniels take it, because it would be so off the wall, Bigelow has this pretty wrapped up. Her movie had moments of brilliance, was emotionally resonant, and consistently strong throughout.
Prediction: Bigelow
Alternate: Cameron
My favorite: Bigelow
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side; Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious; Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia.
I’ve seen all but Mirren. The conventional wisdom has been that Bullock is the frontrunner, with Streep the possible spoiler. A lot of folks really love Sidibe, and there are Mulligan supporters too. In other words, I think Bullock will win, because there’s no single alternative that has strong support, but 3 alternatives with varying levels of support. I will be a bit disappointed when Bullock wins, because while she’s a decent actress and the performance was the best thing about the movie, it’s just not that special, and you already know that in 5 years it’s going to be on those ‘Worst Oscar Wins in History’ lists. Oh well.
Prediction: Bullock
Alternate: Streep
My favorite: Streep (Sidibe just behind)
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, A Single Man; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus; Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
I haven’t seen Bridges or Freeman, and Firth and Renner are a close call for my personal pick. Firth might be the better one, but the movie was just sometimes so in your face arty I wanted to laugh. I just couldn’t bring myself to go see The Wrestler Redux, Crazy Heart, so I’ll have to be content when Bridges wins that it’s an actor I consistently admire, finally getting some long overdue recognition.
Prediction: Bridges
Alternate: Renner
My favorite: Renner (with Firth right behind).
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Nine; Very Farmiga, Up In the Air; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart; Anna Kendrick, Up In the Air; Mo’Nique, Precious.
Prediction: Mo’Nique. No alternate.
My favorite: Mo’Nique. (I also liked Farmiga and Cruz.)
Best Supporting Actor: Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
The most boring line-up I’ve ever seen, these same five solidified early on and were nominated for everything. I can’t say I was ever even interested in seeing any of these performances, or thought that they were getting nominated for anything but because people didn’t know what else to put, but the fact that Anthony Mackie (The Hurt Locker), Paul Schneider (Bright Star), and the wonderful Peter Capaldi (In the Loop) not to mention none of the performances from An Education could manage nominations from even critic’s groups is just so fucking depressing. I’ll stop.
Prediction: Waltz. No alternate.
My favorite: Waltz. I loved him. Loved him. If anyone else wins, I might shoot the TV.
Best Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Up.
A solid group. I’ve already spoken about my love for Basterds and A Serious Man, and their screenplays are very strong. Plus, an alum from The Wire got an Oscar nom! (That’s Tom McCarthy, who co-wrote Up. He played Scott Templeton, the ethically challenged journalist in Season 5.)
Prediction: Tarantino’s Basterds
Alternate: Mark Boal
My favorite: Basterds, with all its flaws, weirdness, and excesses, with A Serious Man and it’s weirdness right behind.
Best Adapted Screenplay: District 9; An Education; In the Loop; Precious; Up In the Air
The presumed frontrunner, Up In the Air, is the weakest in the bunch. There’s no big flaws, but I don’t feel like it goes for anything big either, and the movie didn’t stick with me as long as it took to exit the theatre.
Prediction: Up In the Air
Alternate: Precious
My favorite: In the Loop. Rent it, if you don’t mind profanity.
Now, I’m just going to go into quick rundown mode.
Animated Feature: It’s an indication of awards groupthink that no one seemed to honor anything but Up in a year that included Fantastic Mr. Fox and Coraline. Up is great, but so are the others.
Prediction: Up; my favorite: Coraline
Foreign Language Film: Prediction - The White Ribbon; alternate - Un Prophete.
Art Direction, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Special Effects, Film Editing: Avatar. It’s a visual achievement (no screenplay or acting noms) so it will get rewarded for that.
Original Score: prediction - Up; alternate - The Hurt Locker.
Original Song: ‘The Weary Kind’ from Crazy Heart is pretty locked up.
Costumes: prediction - The Young Victoria; alternate - Coco Before Chanel
Documentary Feature: prediction - The Cove; alternate - Food Inc.
Documentary Short: prediction - China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of the Sichuan Province; alternate: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant.
Makeup: prediction - Star Trek.
See my previous posts for thoughts on the shorts.
Have fun watching the big show tomorrow night!